Risk Outcomes vs Moment of Risk

[Tomico]

We are preparing a model to carry out a first real analysis and we have a question. We are assigning risk to different activities and instead of having low average ang most values we have this:

We would like to clarify the meaning of each value:
Outcome: Is the impact, in this case a fixed impact of 20 days
Start: is this the start valu of the outcome or impact? I mean if we have 0% the start value of the outcome or impact will be 0. Is that correct?
Most likely: Is this the average value of the outcome? In our case 10 days?
Finish: This would be the total value, I mean, 20 days. Is that correct?

[Intaver Support]

You are looking at the "Moment of Risk", not risk outcomes. The confusion arises because “Statistical Distribution for Risk Outcomes” has not been enable and so you only see a single outcome field rather than Low,
First thing you need to do is ensure that the "Enable Statistical Distribution for risk outcomes" check box is selected in the Project Options>Risk



In the dialog, you will now see the 2 additional fields:



If you scroll over to the right, these fields are Moment of Risk. This is an advanced feature that is normally set to Uniform and typically only used when we have risk outcomes like cancel task, end task, or repeat task. We did not cover this as it was not relevant to the risks that we were modeling.



In the Risk Assignment view, you can get a better view of these. My recommendation is to leave the Moment of Risk as Uniform.

[Intaver Support]

We did some analysis, how moment of risk affects results of Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis. We would that in some cases different settings of Moment of Risk may affect results, such as mean project duration and cost, very significantly. We recommend to carefully analyze the Moment of Risk if you have risk assignment "Restart Task", task is on the critical path and task duration is significant compared to other task on the critical path.