Monte Carlo Schedule Risk Analysis with Actuals

General discussion and questions about project risk management and risk analysis software RiskyProject. Includes discussion on how to perform efficient project risk analysis using our software.

Moderator: Intaver Support

Intaver Support
Posts: 788
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

Monte Carlo Schedule Risk Analysis with Actuals

Postby Intaver Support » Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:10 am

The Monte Carlo analysis is always performed with taking in to account actuals. Here is how it works:
* If task is fully completed, risks and uncertainties are not applied to the tasks

* If task is partially completed, the risks are applied only to remaining duration. For example, if 50% of task is completed and original risk probability is 60%, effective risk probability will be 30%.

* If task has a statistical distribution for duration, it will be applied automatically to the remaining duration. For example, if task originally supposes to be completed in 10 days, but after 2 days only 10% is done, new total task duration will be 20 days. Remaining duration will be 18 days. If you defined low and high duration as 90% and 120% of original duration, the same coefficients will be applied to the remaining duration. So low remaining duration will be 18 days * 0.9 = 16.2 days and high duration will be 18 days * 1.2 = 21.6 days.
You may always define statistical distribution for remaining duration manually, as it is shown below.
Attachments
tracking.PNG
Task Information Tracking tab
tracking.PNG (205.66 KiB) Viewed 2885 times
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

Return to “RiskyProject: Project risk management and risk analysis software”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest