Creating post mitigated schedules

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KerryMiller
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Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2007 3:39 pm
Location: USA, MI

Creating post mitigated schedules

Post by KerryMiller » Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:09 pm

We added a mitigation plan a risk, but it does not seem to impact the results of our analysis.
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Re: Creating post mitigated schedules

Post by Intaver Support » Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:26 pm

Mitigation plan are part of the qualitative risk management, but they do not impact the current schedule when you run a Monte Carlo simulation because the plan is not associated with any specific activities or costs in the schedule. To create a post mitigated schedule based upon the results of a simulation, you need to add mitigation activities to the schedule.

Here is an example of how to create a post mitigated schedule based on your mitigation plans
After running an simulation, the risk” Delays in drilling due to mechanical issues, was categorized as Critical. The expected cost of the risk (Loss x probability) is $679, 742. Here we used the Auto Calculation of expected loss to calculate this figure. This is a snipped taken from the Risk Information. Properties tab.

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The results of the simulation in the Project Summary view

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In response, we created the following plan in the Waterfall chart:

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It has two activities that need to be performed to as part of the mitigation plan:
1. Completely refurbish current equipment ( Planned completion Feb 13, Cost $75000)
2. Lease back up equipment ( Planned completion Feb 14, Cost $50000)
The timeframe for the completion of the activities indicates that there completion must roughly coincide with the start of the project.
In the Risk Properties, the expected cost of the risk with mitigation is presented and it shows that we can expect to save $452:

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Now, if we run another simulation, we will find that creating a mitigation plan does not have any impact on the results.

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To create the post-mitigated schedule, we first want to save the current schedule (with risks and uncertainties ) as a pre-mitigated baseline using the Create Baseline feature.

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Now, we are going to add the risk mitigation plans as activities in the schedule with dates and cost as shown below:

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We now go into the schedule and modify the risk so that probabilty and impact are in the planned post - mitigated state:

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Now, we save this as a post- mitigated baseline.

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The pre- and post-mitigated baselines can be visualized on the Project Summary charts.

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By mitigating this risk, we see that we can save on average about $700,000, though because of added activities, the project runs slightly longer. A not unexpected result is that the $700,000 savings does not match the original estimate because of different methods of calculating it. This can act as a reality check on the expected changes to the risk scores due to mitigation efforts. It maybe that the post-mitigated results are too optimistic, but it does provide additional valuable information in which to base your risk management decisions.
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

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