risk modelling issue

General discussion and questions about project risk management and risk analysis software RiskyProject. Includes discussion on how to perform efficient project risk analysis using our software.

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GianniPiazza
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2009 1:36 am

risk modelling issue

Post by GianniPiazza » Wed Mar 03, 2010 7:55 am

Hello,

I have a question regarding modelling a risk.
I have a task with a triangular spread ( 5 week, 7wek, 9 week).
On that task I have risk of 20% that rework may occur. This rework also has a triangular distribution (1 week, 3 week, 4 week).

Does someone knows how to models this in Riskyproject?

Thank you.

Best regards,
Gianni

Intaver Support
Posts: 823
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

Re: risk modelling issue

Post by Intaver Support » Fri Mar 12, 2010 8:51 pm

Gianna,

For this type of modeling we recommend using mutually exclusive alternatives. These are alternative outcomes of the same risk. In your case you would have 3 alternatives of the "rework" risk. And requires a little more analysis to determine the probability for each alternative.

In this example we will give it a 20/60/20 probability, roughly a triangular distribution. In this case probabilities would be equal to 6%, 8%, 6% respectively.

1.Create an activity that has duration of 5 week (low), 7week (base), 9 week (high). In the Distributions tab of the Task information dialog, give duration a triangular distribution.
2. Create risk "Rework" in the register.

To assign the risk to the task:
3. Open the Risk Information dialog box, assign to tasks or resources tab.
4. Click the Task ID in the assigned to tasks grid. This will enable the assignment grid on the right.
4. Create first alternative Chance = 6% Outcome Fixed Delay 1 week
5. Create 2nd alternative Chance = 8% Outcome Fixed Delay 3 week
6. Create 34d alternative Chance = 6% Outcome Fixed Delay 4 week

We are looking at couple of alternative ways of providing easier modeling of distributions for risk assignment. Currently the benefit of the mutually exclusive alternatives is that it allows user the most flexibility in modeling risks. We realize that while this allows for wider range of risk modeling, it also adds additional work to users if all they want to do is model a risk event with a standard 3 pt distribution. We will be posting possible workflows to address this in the near future.

Intaver support
GianniPiazza wrote:Hello,

I have a question regarding modelling a risk.
I have a task with a triangular spread ( 5 week, 7wek, 9 week).
On that task I have risk of 20% that rework may occur. This rework also has a triangular distribution (1 week, 3 week, 4 week).

Does someone knows how to models this in Riskyproject?

Thank you.

Best regards,
Gianni
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Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

Intaver Support
Posts: 823
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

Risk Modeling

Post by Intaver Support » Fri Mar 19, 2010 11:21 am

We will be implementing risk modeling using 3 pt estimates and distributions in version 4.

While the current method of risk modeling provides a very flexible method using mutually exclusive alternatives (- which are just custom distributions - they require more work. Therefore we will provide this as a simpler, easier solution while maintaining the option to use the custom distributions.
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

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