Risk Analysis Results

General discussion and questions about project risk management and risk analysis software RiskyProject. Includes discussion on how to perform efficient project risk analysis using our software.

Moderator: Intaver Support

Robert
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:17 pm

Risk Analysis Results

Post by Robert » Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:43 am

You have low, base, and high results (cost, duration, start and finish times) of the analysis on your data tables. What does it mean?

Intaver Support
Posts: 835
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

re: Risk Analysis Results

Post by Intaver Support » Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:45 am

Base result is associated in mean (statistical average) of results (start and finish times, duration, cost). Low results and high results are associated with maximum/minimum P1/P99, P5/P95, or P10/P90 results of statistical analysis.

Default data is P10/P90. You can change these default. Just go to Tools-> Options and make a selection.
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

Robert
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:17 pm

What is P10/P90?

Post by Robert » Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:50 am

Could you explain p10 and p90 and how its calculated?

Intaver Support
Posts: 835
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

Post by Intaver Support » Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:52 am

P10 is 10th percentile. Here is how percentile is defined in our glossary:

A value on a scale of zero to one hundred, that indicates that percent of a distribution that is equal to or below it. A value in the 95th percentile is a value equal to or better than 95 percent of other values. RiskyProject presents percentiles deviation as part of results of Monte Carlo simulations for project and for the tasks. Notation P95 indicate 95th percentile.

Basically, all samples associated with duration, start and finish time, and cost are sorted from lowest to highest. Then RiskyProject determines index, associated with for example 10th percent of data. If array of data has for example 300 items, this index will be 30. So 30th data sample in the sorted array is P10.
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

Robert
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:17 pm

Just a clarification

Post by Robert » Sun Mar 26, 2006 10:00 am

Could you just clarify. Does this mean that the p10 and p90 values each have a 10% chance of occuring? Does the range of possible values between the two have an 80% chance of occuring?

Intaver Support
Posts: 835
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

Exactly

Post by Intaver Support » Tue Mar 28, 2006 9:46 pm

The values between p10 and p90 represent 80% of the uncertainty for the variable that you are looking at.


Intaver Support
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

Robert
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:17 pm

What is the maximum number of risks?

Post by Robert » Tue Mar 28, 2006 9:48 pm

What is the max no. of risks that you can use with RiskyProject. How many do you recommend?

Intaver Support
Posts: 835
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

Max number of risks

Post by Intaver Support » Tue Mar 28, 2006 9:49 pm

RiskyPRoject can handle up to 3000, however we don't recommend to enter that many as it is hard to analyze them.
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

kp56
Posts: 14
Joined: Wed Jan 18, 2006 3:38 pm

Summary charts

Post by kp56 » Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:00 pm

It would be nice if you had a project performance chart (percent work done) for the summary tasks and the project
:)

Intaver Support
Posts: 835
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

Summary charts

Post by Intaver Support » Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:02 pm

This is planned for our Fall 2007 release of RiskyProject. We are building a couple of distinct views actuals/accruals for this release.
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

WayneDavidson
Posts: 11
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 5:56 am

inputting risks

Post by WayneDavidson » Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:46 pm

I meauser my risk as the chance it will occur during a period of time. How do I define it. For example, there is a 10% chance that the risk will occur over the period of a year during 1 year.

WD

Intaver Support
Posts: 835
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

Defing risk chance type

Post by Intaver Support » Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:50 pm

Go to Options -> Risk and define the risk chance calculation. The chance can be absolute or relative.
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

WayneDavidson
Posts: 11
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 5:56 am

Defining risky types

Post by WayneDavidson » Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:53 pm

OK thanks. One more question

Is it possible to define different risk types in the same project?

Intaver Support
Posts: 835
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

Defining risk types in a project

Post by Intaver Support » Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:54 pm

No, the risk types must be all the same.
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

WayneDavidson
Posts: 11
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 5:56 am

OK,

Post by WayneDavidson » Sat Apr 01, 2006 9:55 pm

Thanks I think I am starting to get the hang of it. Risk analysis, risk outcomes, risk types ...

Post Reply