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Is the pre-mitigation probability / impact used in the calculation regardless of what is specified in the mitigation plan?
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Yes, mitigation plans are only plans and do not affect the calculation. The Pre-mitigation score reflects the current risk model without mitigation efforts. Mitigation plans are a reflection of what the outcome of certain mitigation activities will have on the risk, but these actions may or may not prove effective during project execution. So in the plan below, the project team is expecting that the 2 mitigation activities will reduce the potential impact of the risk on the project, however until they are completed the project is still in a pre-mitigation state and therefore they cannot impact the cost or schedule analysis.