Moderator: Intaver Support
We are concerned in regard to the generation of the Seed values. How does this impact the results of the simulation?
In practical terms correlated activities is appropriate if you believe that they are going to be affected by the same issues. For example, if production rate is low, all effected tasks will take longer and by the same relative amount.
In this example, using our MSP Addin, the tasks low and high estimates are calculated based on the coefficients, but the correlation option is not selected.
This generates the following data in MSP. If we look in the code generated for the simulation, the assigned seed values are different.
If we duplicate this, but use the correlation option, the seed values are identical. This means that each of these tasks will relative durations for each iteration and will simulate they are being impacted by the same factor.
It is similar phenomena when we create risks assignments. By default, risk assignments are correlated, in this way if a risk occurs during an iteration, it impacts all of the tasks to which the risk is assigned. When risks are correlated, the risk assignments for each task have the same seed.
Rather than using task correlations, we recommend using risk assignments to model correlations either as a risk: <100% probability, or an issue: 100% probability.
Intaver Institute Inc.
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