Distribution for the moment of risk
Moderator: Intaver Support

 Posts: 7
 Joined: Wed Oct 17, 2007 11:51 pm
 Contact:
Distribution for the moment of risk
I don't understand how to use statistical distribution for risk. Why do you use only uniform o triangular distribution? What does this distribution mean? How to use seed for the risk distribution?

 Posts: 835
 Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am
You can specify statistical distribution for the moment of risk. It has nothing to do with probability of risk occurrence. Statistical distribution for the moment of risk specifies time when the risk would occur during the course of task (in percents).
For example, uniform distribution means with start time 0% and finish time 100% means that risk would occur anytime during the course of the task with equal probability.
Triangular distribution (start time 0%, most likely time 0%, finish time 100%) means that risk would occur most likely at the beginning of the task.
You may read more about moment of risk in our technical paper regarding event chain methodology.
For example, uniform distribution means with start time 0% and finish time 100% means that risk would occur anytime during the course of the task with equal probability.
Triangular distribution (start time 0%, most likely time 0%, finish time 100%) means that risk would occur most likely at the beginning of the task.
You may read more about moment of risk in our technical paper regarding event chain methodology.
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com