Risk drivers

This forum includes discussion about project risk analysis and risk management theory: Monte Carlo simulations, Event Chain Methodology, schedule and cost risk analysis. Please submit questions and case studies about your experience with our project risk analysis software.

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RohTR1
Posts: 9
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2006 1:23 pm

Risk drivers

Post by RohTR1 » Sat Feb 16, 2013 10:52 am

I read about risk drivers for project schedules: see http://www.projectrisk.com/integrated_c ... lysis.html. What is a difference between risk drivers and Event Chain Methodology?

Intaver Support
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Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Risk drivers

Post by Intaver Support » Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:06 am

Risk drivers or risk events is a component of Event Chain Methodology. Event Chain Methodology is a comprehensive theory of project risk analysis. It includes also:
- state of activities and state tables
- event chains
- event chain diagrams
- resourse allocation using risk events
- execution of mitigation plans based of risk events
and many other components. You may read http://www.intaver.com/index-5.html for more information about Event Chain Methodology
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

Intaver Support
Posts: 835
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Risk drivers

Post by Intaver Support » Tue Mar 26, 2013 3:38 pm

Event Chain Methodology also includes process of changing probabilistic and impact of risks for activities in progress. At the beginning of activity risk assigned to this activity may have certain probability and impact. Close to the end of activity, probability and impact of risk will be reduced. RiskyProject software handles this effect automatically based on:
a). Moment of risk
b). % completed of the activity
So if you enter risk probability 50%, and you already completed 90% of activity and risk did not occur yet, the chance will be reduced. However you don't need to re-enter or update original probability 50%.
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

Integral
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2006 8:30 am

Re: Risk drivers

Post by Integral » Fri Aug 09, 2013 4:36 pm

Is it possible to define statistical distribution for risk outcomes? For example, I have risk "Financial problems". It can cause delay from 3 to 5 days. It would like to use lognormal distribution for this delay.

Intaver Support
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Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Risk drivers

Post by Intaver Support » Fri Aug 09, 2013 4:42 pm

Yes you can do it. You need to enable statistical distribution for risk outcome in Schedule -> Options -> Risks. Then each time you assign risk to task or resources you can define:
- low outcome
- base outcome (for triangular distribution)
- high outcome
- type of distribution
- distribution parameters depending on distribution type
- seed
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

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