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Probabilistic Moment of Risk

Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 2:18 pm
by RohTR1
How does the moment of risk affect results?

Re: Probabilistic Moment of Risk

Posted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 2:21 pm
by Intaver Support
The moment of risk describes when a risk occurs during the execution of an activity. If you are using risk outcomes, such as Restart task or Cancel task, this can have a significant impact of the results. If we look at the chart below, we can see that depending upon when the risk occurs, this can have a significant impact on the expected duration of the activity. If the activity has resources assigned to it this can also impact time dependent costs.

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Moment of risks also can impact the results if you have actuals. Risks probability is prorated over the course of a project. For example if we have a risk that has 50% probability with a uniform moment of risk (0-100%) then as the activity proceeds the probability of the risk will decrease relative to the work completed. Once the activity Is 50% complete, the probability of the risk will be reduced by 50% (.5*.5) and now be 25%.

Moreover if a risk has a moment of risk that can occur only on the first half of the activity and the risk has not occurred, its probability will be set to 0 for the remainder of the activity.