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Because of these findings, in RiskyProject our correlation is binary, either 0 or 100%. We believe this provides an accurate modelling without adding undue complexity to the models. Therefore, advice is that if you have two important risks that are correlated, then correlate them. Otherwise, use correlation with caution.
The example below illustrates the difference between event chain and independent events. Monte Carlo simulations were used to perform the analysis. The project includes three activities of 5 working days each. Each activity is affected by the event “restart activity” with a probability of 50%.
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