Defining Contingencies in RiskyProject

This forum includes discussion about project risk analysis and risk management theory: Monte Carlo simulations, Event Chain Methodology, schedule and cost risk analysis. Please submit questions and case studies about your experience with our project risk analysis software.

Moderator: Intaver Support

Post Reply
Bergman
Posts: 12
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 12:00 pm
Location: New York

Defining Contingencies in RiskyProject

Post by Bergman » Thu Jun 16, 2016 3:44 pm

How can I define contingency buffer in RiskyProject?

Intaver Support
Posts: 812
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Defining Contingencies in RiskyProject

Post by Intaver Support » Thu Jun 16, 2016 3:53 pm

Contingencies are generally defined using confidence levels, that is percentiles or P values based on the results of the Monte Carlo simulation. For example a standard schedule contingency or margin is P80 or the finish date or duration in which the project will finish in at or less 80% of the time. For risk tolerant companies this value may be P70 for very risk averse, this value may be above P90.

You can quickly set up your Monte Carlo simulation results so that your contingency level is automatically displayed as the High results in the Analysis reports, such as the Project Summary for project results or Result Gantt for activity results.

To set contingency levels:

1. Open the Project Options > Calculations
2. In the Low and high time, duration, and cost are calculated based on: group, set the P values for low and high. In the example below, the Custom Percentiles option is selected and the P values are P30 for low and P80 for high. In this case we will be using P80 to calculate contingency.

Image
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

Post Reply