This forum includes discussion about project risk analysis and risk management theory: Monte Carlo simulations, Event Chain Methodology, schedule and cost risk analysis. Please submit questions and case studies about your experience with our project risk analysis software.
Moderator: Intaver Support
- Posts: 19
- Joined: Sun May 27, 2007 4:51 pm
- Location: Boston, MA
In some documentation about Monte Carlo estimates, it seems that they are been referred to as statistical distributions and probability density functions. Is the probability density function the same thing?
- Posts: 892
- Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am
In statistics, statistical distribution and probability density (PDF) functions describe the same thing and can be considered interchangeable. PDFs mathematically describe the probability that an outcome will occur over a range of possible outcomes. In the example below, we have a triangular distribution that ranges from 40 to 60 days with a most likely at 46 days (x axis). On the y-axis, we can see the probability that any value will occur. For example if we draw a straight line across from the highest probability, which is the most likely estimate of 46 days, we can see that this value has .1 or 10% chance of occurring.
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject