Calculated risk probability is different than assigned probability.
Moderator: Intaver Support
Calculated risk probability is different than assigned probability.
I have assigned a risk to a resource(s) as a relative time increase and then also as a relative cost increase – both at 15% chance with 10% outcome. But the issue I seem to have when I do this is that the probability of it occurring goes above 15%. Do I potentially need to add the time delay to the task and cost increase to the resources(s) Or am I going about this all the wrong way.
Business Development Manager

 Posts: 1008
 Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 9:55 am
Re: Calculated risk probability is different than assigned probability.
Calculated probability can vary from the input. But normally not by much. The reason is similar to throwing a dice. At each iteration, the risk has a 15% of occurring, so after 1 iteration, the probability will be 0 or 100%, after 2 throws 0,50, or 100%. After 100 iterations, it could occur 15x (ie 15%) but could be less or more. The more iterations that are run, the closer the probability will be to 15%.
Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com