Day 1 - Decision Analysis Process and RiskyProject software

1. Introduction to project decision and risk analysis process

• Motivations behind project decision analysis process
• Project decision and risk analysis workflow - decision framing, evaluation and monitoring
• Project decision analysis process and other organizational processes

2. Short overview of decision analysis theory

• Psychological biases in heuristics in new product development
• Brief overview of quantitative method: decision tree analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, etc.

3. Project planning, budgeting, and scheduling with risks and uncertainties

• Risk management: planning, evaluation, monitoring and response
• Managing of risk events using event chain methodology
• Comparing project costs, revenue and duration with and without risks

4. RiskyProject and New Product Development

• Scheduling new product development: identification probabilities and risks
• Risk aversion and risk tolerance in new product development
• Analysis different project alternatives
• Making decisions at the gate

5. Basic Features of RiskyProject

• Scheduling with risk and uncertainties
• Quantitative analysis using event chain methodology
• Useful tools and reports in RiskyProject

Day 2 - RiskyProject Workflow: Realistic Project Scheduling and Budgeting

1. Project scheduling

• Identification of activities and relationship between them, calendars
• Material and work resources, fixed and variable cost

2. Risk identification and response planning

• Risk properties: probability, impact, outcome, moment of risk, correlations
• Local and global risks
• Assigning local risks to task and resources
• Uncertainties in duration and costs, expressed as statistical distributions
• Brainstorming for risk identification

3. Quantitative analysis and interpretation of results

• Performing Monte Carlo simulations: convergence monitoring
• Results of quantitative analysis: base, low, and high schedules
• Cost and duration analysis on each project gate
• Chance of project completion (success rate)

4. Sensitivity analysis and reality checks

• What risk is most important?
• Verifying probabilities and impacts of risks

5. Analysis of cost and revenue on different phases of the project

• Probabilistic cashflow diagram
• Cost variance: comparing cost with and without risks
• Critical and crucial tasks: identification of tasks which affect project schedule at most

6. Project decision analysis: from project schedule to decision tree

• Automatic conversion of project schedule to decision tree
• Decision tree analysis using Vanguard Studio

7. Short overview of tracking project with uncertainties

• Forecast versus actual cost
• Risk and uncertainties for partially completed project

8. Integration with project management and business analysis software, reporting

• Reporting tools: project dashboard, exporting charts, flexible reporting
• Export/import data to/from other software and relational databases