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Sensitivity Analysis View

Sensitivity analysis shows which variables have the potential to have the greatest effect on the main project parameters. RiskyProject performs calculations for the sensitivity analysis as part of all probabilistic calculations. The results of sensitivity analysis are presented as a sensitivity chart in the Sensitivity View.

Sensitivity Analysis

The Sensitivity view shows how sensitive or how much potential each project input parameter has on the main project parameters. Sensitivity measures how much a change in an input variable will affect the selected project parameter. For example, if a risk occurs, how much this will affect the project duration. This is measured as the Spearman Rank correlation coefficient. The higher the coefficient, the higher potential this input parameter has to affect the selected output parameter.

RiskyProject uses six input parameters to calculate sensitivity:

  • Task duration
  • Task Start Time
  • Task Success Rate
  • Task Cost
  • Lags
  • Risks

You can select these inputs using thee check boxes at the bottom of the chart.

RiskyProject has the following output parameters:

  • project duration
  • cost
  • finish time
  • success rate
  • all non-schedule risk categories

You can also select All Parameters. You can measure the effects of risks on All Parameters and all non-schedule risk categories. If you select All Parameters, the sensitivity chart shows the ranking across all risk categories, using the risk weighting entered for each risk category.

Viewing the Tornado Chart

  1. Select a project parameter from the drop-down list at the top of the chart. The name of the list changes according to the parameter selected. If you select All Parameters, you will only be able to see risk sensitivities.
  2. Select an input parameter check box located at the bottom of the chart. You can select more than one output parameter. The resulting correlation coefficient is the calculated as the sensitivity of all the selected inputs on the output parameter.

Examples:

  • Input parameter Task Duration and output parameter project Duration are selected. If task A is shown at the top of the sensitivity chart, this indicates that the project duration is very sensitive to the uncertainties in the task A's duration.
  • Input parameter Risks and output parameter All Parameters are selected. If risk A is shown at the top of the sensitivity chart, this indicates that the all risk categories (project scope, duration, cost, all-non-schedule categories) are very sensitive to the uncertainties caused by risk A.
  • Input parameter Task Duration and output parameter project Cost are selected. If task A is shown at the top of the chart, this indicates that the project cost very sensitive to the uncertainties in the task A's duration. It occurs if task A has significant variable cost.

  • RiskyProject identifies risks based on their unique name. For example, if the risk Budgetary Problems is assigned to different tasks, it will be considered as one risk for the purpose of sensitivity analysis. RiskyProject will calculate the overall effect of this risk on the main project parameters. If you select only risks that are input variables, you will see critical risks or risks that have the greatest effect on the project schedule. In the example above, an assessment of Critical Risks begins with difficulties obtaining comprehensive information.
  • If an input parameter (task or risk) is not seen in the list, it means that it does not have a significant effect on project parameters.
  • The correlation coefficient for a risk is not the risk impact, it is the measure of relative importance of the risk. Correlation coefficients are used to calculate risk impact. To read more about this, see How are risk probabilities, impacts, and scores calculated? in the Frequently Asked Question section.
  • If the number of tasks is greater than 4000, the sensitivity chart includes only summary tasks and does not include sensitivity to lags between tasks.

See also

Calculation Algorithm for Sensitivity Analysis
Crucial Tasks Chart
Success Rate Chart
Risk Chart

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