Risk Management Course

Project Risk And Decision Analysis With Focus On New Product Development

Example Of 2 Day Course

Day 1 – Decision Analysis Process and RiskyProject software

1. Introduction to project decision and risk analysis process
  • Motivations behind project decision analysis process
  • Project decision and risk analysis workflow – decision framing, evaluation and monitoring
  • Project decision analysis process and other organizational processes
2. Short overview of decision analysis theory
  • Psychological biases in heuristics in new product development
  • Brief overview of quantitative method: decision tree analysis, Monte Carlo simulations, etc.
3. Project planning, budgeting, and scheduling with risks and uncertainties
  • Risk management: planning, evaluation, monitoring and response
  • Managing of risk events using event chain methodology
  • Comparing project costs, revenue and duration with and without risks
4. RiskyProject and New Product Development
  • Scheduling new product development: identification probabilities and risks
  • Risk aversion and risk tolerance in new product development
  • Analysis different project alternatives
  • Making decisions at the gate
5. Basic Features of RiskyProject
  • Scheduling with risk and uncertainties
  • Quantitative analysis using event chain methodology
  • Useful tools and reports in RiskyProject

Day 2 – RiskyProject Workflow: Realistic Project Scheduling and Budgeting

1. Project scheduling
  • Identification of activities and relationship between them, calendars
  • Material and work resources, fixed and variable cost
2. Risk identification and response planning
  • Risk properties: probability, impact, outcome, moment of risk, correlations
  • Local and global risks
  • Assigning local risks to task and resources
  • Uncertainties in duration and costs, expressed as statistical distributions
  • Brainstorming for risk identification
3. Quantitative analysis and interpretation of results
  • Performing Monte Carlo simulations: convergence monitoring
  • Results of quantitative analysis: base, low, and high schedules
  • Cost and duration analysis on each project gate
  • Chance of project completion (success rate)
4. Sensitivity analysis and reality checks
  • What risk is most important?
  • Verifying probabilities and impacts of risks
5. Analysis of cost and revenue on different phases of the project
  • Probabilistic cashflow diagram
  • Cost variance: comparing cost with and without risks
  • Critical and crucial tasks: identification of tasks which affect project schedule at most
6. Project decision analysis: from project schedule to decision tree
  • Automatic conversion of project schedule to decision tree
  • Decision tree analysis using Vanguard Studio
7. Short overview of tracking project with uncertainties
  • Forecast versus actual cost
  • Risk and uncertainties for partially completed project
8. Integration with project management and business analysis software, reporting
  • Reporting tools: project dashboard, exporting charts, flexible reporting
  • Export/import data to/from other software and relational databases